South Africa’s poultry sector is producing more chicken, benefiting from improved grain supplies and preparing for a new approach to avian influenza. Yet high consumer prices, disease exposure, trade tensions and the slow inclusion of smaller producers continue to complicate the industry’s recovery.
By Ruffled Feathers Pharms | 6 August 2026
The emerging picture of South African poultry in 2026 is one of recovery without complete relief.
Production conditions have improved, feed ingredients are more plentiful and the industry is moving beyond the severe disruption caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza. At the same time, poultry farmers continue to face expensive fuel, uncertain disease risks, demanding biosecurity requirements and consumers whose household budgets remain under pressure.
For farmers, processors and policymakers, the central challenge is therefore no longer simply to restore production. It is to build a poultry value chain that is more resilient, competitive, inclusive and capable of supplying affordable protein consistently.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Pretoria office forecasts that South African chicken-meat production will rise by approximately 2% to 1.68 million tonnes in 2026. Domestic consumption is expected to reach approximately 1.92 million tonnes.
This means that local production is recovering, but it is still not sufficient to meet the country’s full consumption requirements. Imports will therefore remain part of the South African poultry market, even as domestic producers expand capacity.
Chicken remains particularly important because it accounts for approximately 60% of total meat consumption in South Africa. It continues to be the protein that many households turn to when beef, lamb and other meats become unaffordable.
The numbers consequently tell two stories. They indicate that producers have an opportunity to increase local supply, but they also show how dependent South Africa’s food-security system is on the poultry industry operating efficiently.
The strongest positive development for poultry farmers in 2026 is the improved supply of maize and soybeans—the two major components of poultry feed.
The Crop Estimates Committee’s July 2026 forecast placed South Africa’s commercial maize crop at 17.36 million tonnes, the largest maize crop on record. Yellow-maize production, particularly relevant to animal feed, was forecast at almost 7.97 million tonnes. The country’s soybean crop was forecast at approximately 3.04 million tonnes, also the largest on record.
These harvests should help to contain feed prices in the short term. This is significant because feed is generally the largest operating expense on a poultry farm. Even relatively small changes in maize, soybean meal and feed-manufacturing costs can materially affect the cost of producing a tray of eggs or raising a broiler to market weight.
The downward movement had already become visible toward the end of 2025. The National Agricultural Marketing Council reported that the average yellow-maize spot price in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 26.94% lower than a year earlier, while the average soybean price declined by 20.66% over the same period.
However, lower commodity prices do not immediately translate into cheaper feed for every farmer. Transport, milling, packaging, electricity, finance and supplier margins all influence the final amount paid by the producer.
This is particularly important for smaller farms, which generally buy feed in lower volumes and have less bargaining power than large integrated producers.
Although feed conditions have improved, consumers have not experienced equivalent reductions at retail level.
The NAMC found that poultry retail prices increased slightly during the fourth quarter of 2025, even while maize and soybean prices declined. The organisation noted that changes in feed costs take time to move through the value chain and that seasonal demand, competition and retail pricing decisions also affect the final price paid by consumers.
The pressure remained evident in 2026. In May, the price of individual quick-frozen chicken portions was 5.5% higher than a year earlier, despite overall food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation standing at 1.9%.
Consumers are consequently adjusting what they buy. Lower-cost products such as offal, mechanically deboned meat and smaller portions have become increasingly important to households attempting to manage food expenditure.
This affordability pressure is central to the future of the industry. Poultry producers need financially sustainable prices, but chicken and eggs must remain accessible to the millions of South Africans who depend on them as everyday sources of protein.
South Africa’s poultry debate continues to be shaped by the tension between supporting domestic producers and maintaining affordable food supplies.
The USDA forecasts that poultry imports will decline by approximately 5% to 308,000 tonnes in 2026, while exports are expected to grow by about 5% to 65,000 tonnes.
Mechanically deboned meat remains an important component of imported poultry. It is widely used in affordable processed foods such as polony and other cold meats. During the first half of 2025, it accounted for approximately 53% of South Africa’s poultry imports.
Trade policy must therefore perform a difficult balancing act. South Africa needs to protect viable local production from unfair competition, but excessive restrictions can reduce supply and increase prices. Conversely, excessive reliance on imports can expose the country to disease-related closures, shipping disruptions, currency volatility and decisions taken by foreign suppliers.
The most sustainable outcome is not a choice between local production and imports. It is a stronger domestic industry supported by reliable, diversified trade where supply gaps remain.
The poultry industry may be recovering, but the possibility of another avian-influenza outbreak remains a serious threat.
In June 2026, the Minister of Agriculture announced a policy shift intended to move South Africa away from relying solely on the traditional “stamping-out” approach, under which infected and exposed birds may be destroyed.
The proposed framework will permit a combination of vaccination, biosecurity, surveillance and laboratory testing. It is also intended to create a clearer legal system for how commercial and smallholder farms manage outbreaks.
This is potentially one of the most consequential poultry-policy developments in recent years. Vaccination could reduce the scale of future flock losses, protect jobs and provide greater certainty to egg and broiler producers.
However, its success will depend on practical implementation. Vaccines, testing, traceability, veterinary services and monitoring must be affordable and accessible—not only to the largest integrated producers, but also to independent and emerging farmers.
For every poultry business, the lesson remains clear: biosecurity is not an optional expense. Controlling visitors, disinfecting equipment, monitoring mortality, managing wild-bird exposure and separating new birds from established flocks are fundamental business-protection measures.
The poultry industry’s economic significance extends beyond the farm gate.
According to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, poultry generated almost R87.95 billion in gross production value in 2024, comprising approximately R72.09 billion from poultry meat and R15.86 billion from eggs. The industry accounted for 19.1% of total agricultural gross value and 44.4% of animal-products gross value.
In 2026, government and industry moved toward the second phase of the Poultry Master Plan. Its priorities include expanding cooked-poultry exports, increasing local demand, strengthening biosecurity, supporting contract farmers and processors, and transforming ownership and participation throughout the value chain.
The recognition of black-owned contract growers, feed mills, hatcheries, abattoirs and processors shows that some progress has been made.
The more difficult task is ensuring that these businesses remain commercially viable after initial funding or market support ends. Sustainable transformation requires access to reliable offtake agreements, affordable feed, working capital, veterinary support, processing facilities, cold-chain infrastructure and meaningful routes to market.
For emerging and independent producers, the improving national outlook creates opportunities—but expansion must remain disciplined.
Farmers should use the present period of improved grain availability to strengthen their operations rather than assume that feed will remain inexpensive indefinitely. Accurate records of feed consumption, mortality, egg production, growth rates, electricity use and delivery costs are becoming essential to survival.
Producers should also secure buyers before increasing flock sizes. A larger flock without dependable market access can quickly turn an expansion plan into a cash-flow crisis.
Technology can assist, but it does not have to begin with expensive automation. Temperature sensors, water-flow monitoring, digital production records, security cameras and basic farm dashboards can help farmers detect problems earlier and make better operating decisions.
Most importantly, growth should be matched by improvements in housing, ventilation, water security, disease control, storage, packaging and logistics.
South African poultry enters the second half of 2026 in a stronger position than it occupied during the worst of the avian-influenza crisis.
Production is increasing. Record maize and soybean harvests are supporting the feed environment. Government has signalled a more modern approach to vaccination, while the second phase of the Poultry Master Plan places exports, transformation and biosecurity firmly on the agenda.
Yet recovery should not be confused with resilience.
The industry still has to translate lower input pressures into affordable food, protect flocks from future disease outbreaks, reduce avoidable supply-chain costs and create more commercially sustainable opportunities for smaller farmers.
The emerging picture is therefore encouraging, but unfinished. South Africa has the production capability, agricultural resources and consumer demand required to build a stronger poultry industry. The outcome will depend on whether those advantages are converted into efficient farms, reliable markets and broader participation across the value chain.
Ruffled Feathers Pharms’ view: The future of South African poultry will belong to producers who combine disciplined farm management, strong biosecurity, dependable market relationships and practical technology with a clear understanding of their production costs.
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